New Poll Reveals Cracks in ODM Stronghold as UDA Gains Ground
For years, Kisumu has been ODM’s stronghold & its political lifeline. Elections here have been more of a formality – ODM hasnt just competed here, it’s largely been a done deal with the party dominating the scene.
But things are starting to change now & this time, the party isnt facing any real opposition from elsewhere.
A Sudden Change in the Numbers
Mizani Africa released an opinion poll on April 30th , which shows a complete flip in ODM’s fortunes in Kisumu. The party’s grip on the county is starting to slip, & fast.
Just a few weeks ago in early April 2026, ODM was riding high with a commanding 71% of support in the county. Their closest rival UDA trailed far behind at 11.7%.
“We’d long described ODM in Kisumu as dominant, solidly consolidated and unopposed,” Mizani Africa noted at the time
Now , that confidence is starting to evaporate.
ODM’s Internal Split Takes Center Stage
The latest poll suggests ODMs main problem isnt UDA – it’s divisions within the party itself
Support within the party has fractured into two clear camps. On one side is the Linda Mwananchi wing, backed by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna , now holding a 36.2% support in Kisumu.
On the other is the Linda Ground faction which is linked to Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga & is seen as leaning more towards working closely with the broader government – & thats currently polling at 19.1%.
Combined the two factions still manage to command 55.3% – a majority – but that number hides a bigger issue – the party has slipped 15.7 percentage points of its original support & for all thats worth in politics perception counts just as much as raw numbers.
UDA Quietly Gains Ground
As the ODM party starts to unravel, UDA seems to be making a move.
The ruling party has basically doubled its support in Kisumu – a sudden jump from 11.7% to 24.5% in just a few short weeks. And to me that’s more than just growth – it’s a clear signal.
As they report ‘ ODM has created divisions in Kisumu and out of that division UDA is rising. The overall power base has shifted from a party that’s all powerful to party members competing over smaller slices of the pie. In Kisumu these days the biggest worry for ODM isn’t UDA – its ODM itself’ they said.
That’s a pretty striking thing to say. Kisumu was basically a no-go zone for opposition parties, but now suddenly its becoming a hotspot of competition.
Zoning Debate Sparks Fresh Tension
Just as the divide is growing, another point of contention is rising within ODM – the issue of zoning.
Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong’o is very publicly pushing back against the idea of reserving certain areas for specific candidates – something some people think would be a good way to manage all the infighting.
But Nyong’o isn’t sold on it.
He says zoning could actually undermine democracy by making it harder for candidates and voters – limiting their options and ultimately reducing the votes people get to have their say on who they want to see in power
According to Nyong’o, by restricting where candidates can run, you cheat them of a fair chance, reduce the voters options and that could have wider and lasting effects beyond just party politics.
A Deciding Moment for ODM in Kisumu
So what does this all mean for ODM?
They still hold a lot of sway in Kisumu, that’s for sure. But that unity that used to make them pretty much unbeatable in the region is falling apart.
The next few weeks might depend less on beating the opposition and more on somehow finding a way to heal the rifts within their own party.
Because right now the numbers are saying one thing – ODM’s biggest challenge isn’t outside its gates, it’s within.
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New Poll Reveals Cracks in ODM Stronghold as UDA Gains Ground
